The K-Shape Index (KSI)—a 0–100 measure of recovery inequality built from employment divergence, GDP–jobs gaps, long-term unemployment, sectoral dispersion, and wealth concentration—captures this divide. A score above 60 signals a sharply unequal recovery. The U.S. has repeatedly experienced K-shaped economy recoveries, where GDP rises while households diverge. Past cycles — 1990–91 (KSI 54), 2001 (64), 2007–09 (90), and 2020–21 (90) — all showed the same pattern: output rebo

The data paints a very different picture from the slogan. According to the Congressional Budget Office, U.S. real GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.4% in 2025, down from the stronger pace seen just two years ago. The economy actually contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, reflecting weaker consumer demand and tighter financial conditions. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in May 2025 — one of the lowest readings on record — sug

The latest IMF World Economic Outlook labels today’s environment a “global economy in flux.” Growth is slowing, risks are rising, and structural cracks are showing across policy, markets, and consumers. 🏦 Global Economy: The IMF projects 3.2% growth in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 — the weakest post-pandemic trajectory yet. Fiscal expansion, tariff shocks, and tightening global credit are testing debt sustainability worldwide. Oil prices are expected to average $68.92 in 2025 and $